Relatively big move to the upside today, which was certainly good for most of the positions I recommended in our Live Trading channel over the past few days.
What's my today's pick?
#XBI. I already traded this twice since I started my daily posts but could not resist to trade it again given the great results on the previous two trades. Also, yesterday the price was smashed pushing the IVR even higher. I chose the $75 put as it's still a fair bit below the current level so I'd like to think that it's a pretty safe trade.
The stats
Trade Type: Short Put
Strike: $75
Expiry: 20 May
Delta: 15
IV Rank: 62.4
Premium: $1.2
Cap Req: $755
Annualised Prof at Expiry: 187%
Also worth mentioning that the NFLX (Netflix) earnings is taking place as I write this post and after being smashed (-30%) during the previous earnings, it is being absolutely hammered again and is currently down by another 22%. The trade I had will be a guaranteed loser so tomorrow I will have to see what can be done to minimise the loss.
https://www.tycoonitos.com/community/market-comments/market-comments-20220329
But it's not all bad news.
Closed trades today:
https://www.tycoonitos.com/community/market-comments/market-comments-20220405
https://www.tycoonitos.com/community/market-comments/market-comments-20220325
https://www.tycoonitos.com/community/market-comments/market-comments-20220408
Let me know your thoughts.
Time to say good bye to this trade with an ok profit.
I could have held it for much longer and keep rolling it but due to the market conditions I am working on de-risking my portfolio.
Closed at $1.77 for an annualised profit of 26%.
Rolled out the strikes to $83/102 for a $6.32 debit.
Total credit: $2.80.
By sacrificing a significant portion of the total credit the probability of profit jumped from 44% to 69%.
Rolled up the put side to $90 for $1.71 credit.
Total credit: $9.12
The long battle continues.
Rolled to Sep $77/90 strangle for $0.49 credit.
Total credit: $5.39
Rolled up the put side to $80 for $0.74 credit.
Total credit: $4.9
Rolled up the put side to $77 for $0.47 credit.
Total credit: $4.16
Rolled up the put side to $75 for $0.58 credit.
Total credit: $3.69
Moving aggressively on this one.
Rolled up the put side to $72 for $0.74 credit.
Total credit: $3.11
Rolled up the put side to $68 for $0.5 credit.
Total credit: $2.37
Rolled to Aug $65/85 strangle, which cost $1.09.
Total credit: $1.87
Rolled down the call side to $75 for $0.28 credit.
Total credit: $2.96
Another nice challenge but the IVR is great.
Rolled to July $64 / 78 for $1.06 credit.
Total credit: $2.68
This trade needs more time.
I already went inverted but because I only had $7.07 credit and the width of the inverted strangle is $10 (75 call / 65 put) I would have lost close to $3.
So instead of the guaranteed loss, I decided to give it more time and roll it out to June 64 put / 74 call.
The roll cost $5.45 but that's fine. We still have a total credit of $1.62 and have a much better position than the inverted strangle.
Rolled down the call side to $65.
Total credit: $7.07.
Rolled down the call side to $70 so this trade is now inverted (the call side is lower than the put side).
Total credit: $5.78
Rolled down the call side to $75, thus turning it into a straddle.
Total credit: $4.97
Rolled down the call side to $81
Total credit: $3.98
Another significant drop so I rolled down the call side again to $85.
Total credit: $3.32
Massive drop today so I rolled down the call side to $92.
Total credit: $2.47
The price went up over the past couple of days so instead of closing the put, I decided to sell a $95 call against it for $0.97.
The total credit in this trade is now $2.17.